Category Archives: scenarios

Health Care Nation, a 2026 update

Greetings from late September.  I’m writing this from several different airplanes and airports, traveling back from the University of Alaska’s second AI Symposium.  Aircraft wifi has been uneven, dropping in and out, and once tried to double charge me.  Another … Continue reading →

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The 2031 Crisis in Higher Education: a stark scenario

Greetings from a surprisingly pleasant late July.  Smoke from Canada’s fires has dissipated and temperatures have dwindled to the 80s F.  It’s actually delightful to be outside. Today’s post is about a scenario for higher ed’s future.  It’s not from … Continue reading →

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Higher education enrollment: new data for spring 2026

How is higher education enrollment changing, and what might it become in the future? These have been long-running interests of mine.  Today the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center just released its updated spring 2026 data. In this post I’ll dig … Continue reading →

Posted in enrollment, scenarios | 4 Comments

Launching my new book, Peak Higher Ed

Greetings from the darkest week of the year in the northern hemisphere. As winter solstice draws nigh I’m preparing some end-of-year posts.  But first, this month Johns Hopkins University Press is publishing my new book, Peak Higher Ed: How to … Continue reading →

Posted in automation, climatechange, Future Trends Forum, higher education, scenarios, writing | Tagged | 1 Comment

Another jobs projection: support for the Health Care Nation scenario

Which academics fields are growing, and for what reasons?  Which are shrinking, and why? I’ve been exploring these questions for years.  Today I came across a recent federal report which might give some insights. One answer is that health care … Continue reading →

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Health care nation appears in some high schools

As a futurist I study and produce scenarios.  These are short stories about possible futures, visions of what might come to pass and within which participants might see themselves.  They are a classic forecasting method.  (Check Wikipedia for a good … Continue reading →

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Modeling the decline of American Christianity

What does America look like if the decline in Christian belief continues? What might this mean for higher education? buy eriacta online buy eriacta no prescription generic I’ve been tracking this religious trend for a while (2021, 2019, 2017). Today … Continue reading →

Posted in demographics, politics, scenarios, trends | 3 Comments

Modeling civil unrest in the United States: some historical cases

Greetings from the United States holiday of Labor Day.  I took a day off yesterday with my wife to explore Fredericksburg, a nearby Virginia city with interesting historical and general stuff.  Being an America, I couldn’t take the day really … Continue reading →

Posted in politics, scenarios | 10 Comments

A shattered consensus: the end of college for everyone

For a generation or more America has held a rough cultural consensus: that the more people go to college, the better.  In fact, some have argued for everyone to get some higher ed experience, or least to prepare all K-12 … Continue reading →

Posted in future of education, scenarios | 13 Comments

Reading the new IPCC climate crisis report: part 1

Today we’ll start our reading of the new IPCC climate report. In this post you’ll find a summary of the “Summary for Policymakers,” along with questions, observations, and some resources.  We’re following the online reading plan laid out here. 1: … Continue reading →

Posted in book club, climatechange, scenarios | Tagged | 12 Comments